Projects

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Over 3,500 people have died on California’s streets and highways each year since 2016, despite commitments at the state, regional, and local levels to reduce this toll. A growing number of safety experts have pointed to high speed limits as a serious obstacle to increased traffic safety. The basic rule for setting motor vehicle speed limits in California, and across the U.S. is the “85th Percentile Rule.” This rule is deeply ingrained, both practically and legally in transportation engineering practice, but is now being scrutinized by those committed to improving traffic safety. This research synthesis will review the history and evolution of the 85th percentile rule in traffic engineering practice, and critically analyze and summarize research to date on its effects.

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California is growing faster and aging more rapidly than America as a whole. California’s population aged 60 years and over is expected to grow more than three times as fast as the total population. Older adults age in place – increasingly in suburban areas where access to transit and pedestrian-friendly neighborhoods is limited. Data from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey show that people over age 65 made 86% of their trips by automobile; 66% as drivers. As they age, however, many older adults limit their driving and ultimately lose the ability to drive altogether, affecting their quality of life in old age. This study explores relationships between aging, travel, mobility and residential relocation using a unique longitudinal database rarely before used in transportation research, the Health and Retirement Survey, augmented by other measures, such as transit accessibility.

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For decades evaluation of the benefits and costs of new- or re- development in urban areas has centered on the effects of development on nearby traffic flows. Historically, and in most states outside of California, the level-of-service (LOS) scale has been used to approve or disapprove commercial developments. The logic of such an evaluation model is that smooth traffic flows are a primary goal of urban areas, which has the effect of discouraging the sorts of densely developed places that are more easily accessed by foot, bike, shared mobility, and public transit. To overcome the traffic flow focus of traffic impact analyses, the California legislature passed SB 743 in 2013, which mandated a change in the way that transportation impacts are analyzed under CEQA. New CEQA Guidelines were created to replace LOS with a new focus on how proposed developments affect vehicle miles of travel (VMT). This translational project will build on prior research, as well as the burgeoning literature on operationalizing access into transportation planning and engineering to develop and test some new analytical tools to evaluate the access impacts of developments.

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This is the second study of voter-approved transportation sales taxes in Los Angeles County performed by the UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies with support from the Haynes Foundation. The earlier study examined the history of the four half cent sales taxes enacted by voters in Los Angeles County between 1980 and 2016. The current study looked in depth at four issues raised but not addressed in the first one. We report on the extent to which the “local return” provisions of the four measures fund transportation programs and projects in the cities and unincorporated areas of the county. We also explored tradeoffs between accountability to the voters through audits and taxpayer advisory committees in comparison with the county’s flexibility to change program elements through amendments when conditions change. Accountability to the voters was enhanced in the later sales tax measures but amendment procedures have been used to respond to changing needs in the county. We examined lawsuits brought against Metro regarding implementation of the sales taxes and found that there have been rather few. The COVID-19 pandemic struck while the study was underway and in response the report also explores the impacts of the pandemic on transportation sales tax revenues and program expenditures. The transportation sales taxes through the end of year 2020 have been the most important and resilient LA Metro funding sources during the pandemic. Sales tax revenue declined but far less than did federal and state sources of finance and revenues from fares paid by passengers.

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In California, driving is cheap and housing is expensive, and both these facts impede the state’s progress toward sustainability, safety and affordability. Efforts to solve these problems, however, often operate on parallel tracks: bold plans to increase housing production say little about congestion, and plans to address congestion rarely discuss the housing crisis. While these omissions are often understandable, they create a situation where policy proposals to solve one problem often flounder on concerns about the other one. Proposals to allow more development, even near transit, encounter resistance from neighbors concerned that development will bring congestion. Similarly, proposals to price roads encounter resistance based on the concern that California is already extremely expensive, and people have to live far from where they work because of the housing crisis. Somehow this policy gridlock must be resolved, if California will meet its stated goals of reducing VMT, reducing emissions, and building millions of units of housing.

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This project presents and reviews the available sources of data on public transit riders and ridership, as a resource for those who manage or simply wish to understand U.S. transit. In conducting this review, the researchers consider the advantages and disadvantages of publicly available data on transit from a variety of public and private sources, as well the relatively scarcer and less available sources of data on other providers of shared mobility, like ride-hail services, that compete with and complement public transit and pieces missing from the transit analytics pie. Data gaps both align with existing inequities and enable them to continue, unmeasured, as the COVID-19 pandemic has made closing these gaps all the more important.

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Wildfires and post-fire debris flows have had severe impacts on California’s transportation system recently, and climate forecasts show that these hazards are likely to become more of a concern in the future. Yet our understanding of the vulnerability of transportation systems to wildfires is in its nascent stages, with focus largely on evacuation logistics and characterizing where risks of fire are increasing and which infrastructure are co-located. Wildfire risk is much more complex as post-fire precipitation events create conditions where roadway stormwater management is failed often leaving remote communities disconnected. There is an opportunity to improve our understanding of the vulnerability of transportation systems and associated adaptation strategies to ensure that services continue to be delivered in the face of growing hazards. This problem is not specific to California as wildfires across the Southwest are becoming more problematic.

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California’s freeways have come under increasing scrutiny for their disproportionately adverse impacts on low-income populations and populations of color. This project uses empirical research to not only understand but also quantify and describe in detail the historical impacts of freeways on communities of color in four California cities and areas: Pasadena, Pacoima, Sacramento, and San José. In these neighborhoods, freeways displaced many residents, significantly harmed those that remained, and left communities divided and depleted. The four cases differ in notable ways, but they share a disproportionate impact of freeway construction on communities of color. In Pasadena and Pacoima, decision-makers chose routes that displaced a greater share of households of color than proposed alternatives. Demolition and displacement were the most visible and immediate effects of the freeways, but toxic pollution, noise, economic decline, and stigmatization remained long after. In suburban areas, white, affluent interests often succeeded in pushing freeways to more powerless neighborhoods. Massive roadway construction complemented other destructive governmental actions such as urban renewal and redlining. Freeways and suburbanization were key components in the creation of a spatial mismatch between jobs and housing for people of color, with few transportation options to overcome it. Understanding the history of racism in freeway development can inform restorative justice in these areas.

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Street rights-of-way are typically a city’s most valuable asset. Streets serve numerous functions — access, movement, and the provision of space for on-street parking, children’s play, and social interaction. But the more land that is devoted to streets, the less land there is available for housing, parks, offices, and other land uses. In this research project, UCLA researchers quantified the width of streets in 20 of the largest counties in the United States, and the value of the land under those streets. This research found that streets in the U.S. are much wider than in other countries. Street widths are normally dictated by subdivision codes and local street design manuals. The highest street land values are found in coastal California, and streets could be much narrower.

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Transportation agencies use travel demand models (e.g., four-step models, activity-based models, dynamic traffic assignment models) to evaluate transportation improvement projects. However, existing travel demand models are unable to account for capacity changes of the network and mode shifts associated with connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies and services. This project aims to lay a foundational framework for the development of planning-level analysis capability that includes CAVs and engage in a small scale case study, toward a vision where practitioners have CAV-aware tools available. The research team will work with stakeholders in the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) to identify current needs in modeling CAVs and new mobility services in demand models. The project will develop methodologies to enhance the existing SCAG activity-based demand model, and the areas of enhancements include, but not limited to, capacity adjustments and new scenarios of travel behavior/choice modeling.

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A recent survey by the Public Policy Institute of California shows that 85% of Californians are concerned about the presence of homeless people in their community and believe addressing this issue should be a top priority. Few scholars have studied the large and growing numbers of people who live in their vehicles. According to point-in-time count data from the 2019 Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, over 40% of the unsheltered homeless population in LA County, some 14,000 people, rely on vehicles (cars, vans, RVs) for shelter. The increase in vehicular homelessness raises challenges for both people who are experiencing homelessness and for cities. Vehicle living can be cost-effective relative to sky-high rents, but residents often lack essential amenities. At the same time, residents complain about the adverse effects of vehicle encampments on their neighborhoods. In response, this project seeks to create a better understanding of vehicular homelessness as a way for both homeless providers and transportation officials alike to address this precarious form of shelter.

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Aviation is a difficult sector to decarbonize. The high energy and power requirements of flight make electrification challenging and low-carbon liquid fuels face their own technical and practical hurdles. While much of the attention on air transportation pertains to passenger travel, the relatively smaller air cargo industry faces similar challenges to decarbonization as the passenger airline industry. In the face of a difficult to decarbonize aviation sector, carbon savings may be realized by facilitating modal shifts from air transportation to less-polluting ground transportation where feasible. California’s effort to build a high-speed rail network for interregional travel in California is an example of such a strategy and features prominently in the state’s Scoping Plan as one pathway towards meeting 2050 GHG emissions reduction targets in the transportation sector. Luskin Center for Innovation researchers propose conducting an exhaustive search of the relevant peer reviewed and grey literature on studies that examine the economic and environmental effects of policies, programs, and projects aimed at shifting passenger and cargo movements from the air to the ground.

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The project’s ultimate goal is threefold. First, we will deliver a broad but accurate and relevant snapshot of vulnerable travelers in California. Second, we will use that information to carefully consider how different forms of congestion pricing might improve or degrade equity. Third and most important, we will use lessons from other safety net programs, and particularly those operating in the utility industry in California, to propose specific safeguards for poor and marginalized populations that can be built into congestion charging programs. We examine the fairness implications of congestion pricing and propose policy mechanisms to mitigate its potential unfair outcomes. Our project first empirically establishes the broad contours of travel by vulnerable populations in California’s major metropolitan areas. We then examine particular forms of congestion charging, and evaluate how they might affect equity. Finally and most importantly, we draw on models of the guardrails instituted by other public utilities to illustrate ways to have congestion pricing while still protecting low-income travelers.

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This project examines the spatial distribution of tenant-based Housing Choice Voucher (Section 8) units and Low-income Housing Tax Credit units to understand whether geographic patterns and trends are consistent with climate change and equity goals. The analysis compares the location of HCV and LIHTC units in 2012 and net changes from 2012 to 2019 with a number of transportation, environmental, and racial and economic equity metrics. The change in HCV units from 2012 to 2019 shows promising trends for reducing vehicle miles traveled and increasing walkability and transit accessibility. LIHTC unit locations are, at best, somewhat more sustainable than the state overall, with slightly lower-skewing vehicle miles traveled and better walkability, though low transit accessibility. What environmental gains there were, though, come at the cost of higher exposure to pollution. HCV and LIHTC units are also concentrated in disproportionately low-income neighborhoods and neighborhoods of color, with worse access to economic opportunity. The findings reveal an inherent structural dilemma in whether the HCV and LIHTC programs are able to simultaneously achieve climate and equity goals.

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Los Angeles County has spent tens of billions of dollars to build over 100 miles of rail transit, but today per capita transit ridership is 40 percent lower than before rail construction began. One reason for this startling failure is that LA remains overwhelmingly laid out for the automobile: it is a low-density, parking-heavy landscape where the built environment is not conducive to transit use. Our analysis will compare costs, project timelines, and community benefits of by-right and nearby discretionary projects. We will estimate reductions in project costs and time to market resulting from by-right approvals and compare benefits by assessing differences in affordable units provided by developers. This analysis will be used to project impacts to housing affordability and availability near transit, with estimated mobility impacts that could result, including changes to transit usage and vehicle-miles traveled.

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The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically affected transportation systems, including the ability of localities to pay for them. This project explores the effects of the pandemic and the associated economic turbulence on local option sales taxes (LOSTs), an increasingly common revenue source for transportation in California and across the U.S. During times of economic weakness, spending and therefore LOST revenues will lag—the pattern in California counties during the initial months of the pandemic. Fortunately for local transportation budgets, LOST revenues recovered after the initial economic shock of COVID-19, albeit at a lower level than they likely would have otherwise. LOST revenue trends during the pandemic were affected by national and regional economic conditions and government policy as well. This public health crisis illustrates both the pitfalls and resilience of LOSTs during economic downturns and recoveries.

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This project synthesizes three primary data sources—credit data, unemployment claims data, and small business loan and grant data—to explore the financial conditions of those who drive for a living before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in California. Automobile debt was high among groups likely to contain professional drivers. The occupational categories in which many drivers fall had high absolute and relative levels of automobile debt compared to other workers. After the onset of the pandemic, unemployment rose dramatically in the transportation industry and in transportation occupations, peaking at rates higher than the national average. However, state unemployment claims data, among transportation employee claimants only, show less of a spike. Contractor drivers lived in areas with more Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims, a special program for self-employed workers like gig drivers. Finally, contractor drivers received unprecedented but uneven federal small business loans and grants. Drivers in many areas, however, did not receive much or any of these funds, though those areas that did tended to have more residents of color. Assessing the full effect of the pandemic on professional drivers’ debt and finances will require additional and better data, particularly workforce data from gig economy firms that contract with drivers.

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Most U.S. metropolitan areas developed alongside the automobile. Consequently, access to opportunities in these neighborhoods is predicated on having an automobile, yet many households do not have the resources to purchase one outright, relying on automobile loans to spread out the purchase price. Moreover, COVID-19 altered travel patterns in the U.S. Few studies have focused on automobile ownership—a relationship with potentially long-term consequences for accessibility, household budgets and debt, and policy efforts to meet climate goals. To understand the association between the pandemic and automobile ownership, this project first examines three different automobile loan-related outcome measures: annualized growth rate of new automobile loan balances, average new loan size, and the number of new loans. The annualized growth rate of new automobile loans increased during the pandemic across all neighborhoods by race/ethnicity, increasing most rapidly in Latino/a neighborhoods. Controlling for other factors, loan size increased similarly across neighborhoods by race/ethnicity. The increase in automobile lending in Latino/a neighborhoods, therefore, likely was explained by a significant uptick in the number of new loans. The growth in automobile lending during the pandemic was potentially prompted by pandemic-induced changes in the need for automobiles and facilitated by an expanded social safety net. Second, the project explores the determinants and geography of automobile debt and its consequences in California, testing whether various automobile debt measures disproportionately affect non-white neighborhoods. Controlling for other factors, Black and Latino/a neighborhoods have higher total automobile debt, debt burdens (debt relative to income), and automobile loan delinquency rates. The findings underscore the importance of policies to offset the costs of automobile ownership and access.

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More than half a million individuals experience homelessness every night in the U.S. With the scale of the crisis often surpassing the capacities of existing safety nets — all the more so since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic — many turn to transit vehicles, stops, and stations for shelter. Many also use transit to reach destinations such as workplaces, shelters, and community service centers. This project investigates the intersections of the pandemic, transit, and homelessness; the scale of homelessness on transit; and how transit agencies are responding to the problem. All told, centering the mobility and wellbeing of unhoused riders fits within transit’s social service role and is important to improving outcomes for them and for all riders.