Date: December 5, 2019
Author(s): Jacob L. Wasserman
Abstract
Metropolitan areas across America have been seeing a decline in transit patronage since the Great Recession. The San Francisco Bay Area held off the ridership declines until 2016, when ridership began to fall both regionwide and on almost all major transit operators in Northern California. Boardings per capita have already been declining the past decade. The steepest losses have come at off-peak times despite increased transit service. Policymakers should focus on improving off-peak transit ridership and devise strategies to handle the problems that come with an over-reliance on peak ridership, like overcrowding.
About the Project
Transit ridership is on the wrong track across America. Yet until 2016, the San Francisco Bay Area appeared immune to the ridership declines plaguing most other cities. However, in 2017, Bay Area ridership began to fall, both regionwide and on almost all major transit operators. But this decline has not occurred uniformly. Gains at major Bay Area transit agencies masked longer-term declines in the rest of the region. The region’s largest operators are suffering from severe and deepening peaking problems: ridership during off-peak periods and in off-peak directions has cratered, while ridership at peak periods and in peak directions remains steady. Finally, jobs, and particularly concentrated employment, explain far more of variation in ridership than any other determinant analyzed, including factors like service provided.