Date: June 17, 2021
Author(s): Allison Yang
Abstract
California aims to be carbon neutral by 2045. Achieving carbon neutrality in California’s transportation sector is projected to create more than 7.3 million full-time equivalent (FTE) job-years worth of work over the next 25 years, resulting in hundreds of thousands of permanent jobs and the creation of new billion- or multibillion-dollar industries. This influx of new jobs in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV)-related sectors will be accompanied by a decline in jobs in fossil fuel-burning internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV)-related sectors. To assess how employment in these sectors will change between now and 2045, we must examine how consumer expenditures — a key driver of change in the labor market — will vary over time. This research explains the fundamental relationship between how consumers spend their money and consequent changes in the workforce, characterizes Californians’ current transportation-related spending, and forecasts changes in these spending patterns that will drive employment changes across transportation-related supply chains between now and 2045. California will spend $23.3 billion less across the three key transportation expenditure categories in 2045 compared to 2020, with overall expenditures falling from $175.4 billion to $152.1 billion. New vehicle purchases will remain the largest expenditure category, with fuel costs second, and maintenance costs last.
About the Project
This capstone project was completed in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Master of Urban & Regional Planning at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs.