Date: May 1, 2017
Author(s): Carole Turley Voulgaris
Abstract
Across the globe, optimistic predictions of transit projects have led to billions of dollars of public investment. In the United Sates, the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) has their Capital Investment Grants program, also known as New Starts. As transit projects failed to meet their expectations, the FTA made changes to the New Starts program to increase forecast accuracy. This study found that the accuracy of both transit ridership forecasts and initial cost estimates have improved substantially. More accurate ridership forecasts are most strongly related to shorter construction durations. The New Starts program has been successful in creating a more results-oriented mindset among local project sponsors, so local goals are in better alignment with those of the FTA.
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